Yesterday, the Associated Press reported that millionaires are fleeing their luxury homes in New York to establish residency in less-taxing states. As a result, New York is receiving far less revenue than was expected from the wealthy since these wealth taxes were enacted last April.

Call it the law of unintended consequences.

To be fair, many of these losses come from scaled-back salaries and layoffs on Wall Street, but more than a few may be packing up and moving to more tax-friendly states such as Florida, Nevada and elsewhere–and are taking jobs with them. It is reported that billionaire Buffalo Sabres owner Tom Golisano who was paying $13000 a day in New York income taxes has moved to Florida. With him go 5000 jobs from Paychex, the Rochester, NY payroll processing company he owns. Rush Limbaugh has also given up his Manhattan home to escape excessive taxation.

Donald Trump tells Fox News that a number of his millionaire friends are also thinking of bailing from New York because of excessive taxation. Says AP:

“States also realized that having a higher tax rate than their neighbors would cost them talent, lose jobs and hinder economic growth, the foundation reported in May after Hawaii joined Maryland, New Jersey, California and New York to adopt a “millionaire’s tax.” New York, for example, has been careful not to raise its highest rates above New Jersey’s, according to the foundation.”

In California, millionaires and job producers are already being heavily courted by Nevada, a state that is seeking to grow its employment base and fortunes with its minimal taxation and business-friendly environment:

by Roberta Murphy

If I could be  President Obama’s Mortgage Czar for just one week, the first thing I would mandate is that all existing mortgages become assumable.

When starting my real estate career in Houston, Texas during the last century, it was not uncommon for buyers to assume or take over  existing  financing. In fact, it was a perfect way for the self-employed or those with dinged credit to buy a home.  And because there were no loan origination fees or points,  buyers were often willing to pay a slight premium for homes with assumable loans.

To implement this today would create an immediately available financing alternative for the real estate market–and might even be a way for banks to deal with some of those famously-toxic assets. As Mortgage Czar, I would create two tiers for Assumable Loans:

1. Non-Distressed Loans. Owners of these home have equity and would likely need concessions from neither the lender nor the government, other than permission for the mortgage(s) to be assumed. For example, Seller Smith has an outstanding mortgage of $200,000 and is selling his home for $250,000. Buyer Jones would pay $50,000 plus minimal closing fees and would assume esisting financing. All future payments would now be made by Buyer Jones.  It is a simple transfer of title and mortgagor with no change in terms.

2. Distressed Sales. Sellers of these homes have no equity; in fact, they generally owe more than the home is worth.  Using a blend of short sale and loan modification procedures, loan balances and interest rates on these homes would be adjusted to current market value and rates.  Because buyers would no longer be “buying equity” and would have no equity stake in the properties, lenders could now require that prospective buyers deposit at least three months’ payments with the lender as insurance against potential future default.The Buyer would also be responsible for applicable closing fees.

Implementation of this mandate would allow both the existing borrower and the lender to avoid the costs and damages of the foreclosure process–and would help protect neighborhoods from further decay and decline.

By allowing mortgages to become assumable, we would also be offering a second chance to many whose credit ratings have been demolished by short sales and foreclosures.

Under this plan, lenders would fare much better vis-à-vis short sales and foreclosures–and more homeowners would be able to save their credit and exit their situations with dignity.  Most lenders now force homeowners to be in default with their mortgage before they will even consider a short sale or modification of terms.

It just makes sense to get the mortgage debt seamlessly transferred before it ever goes default.

And with strangled liquidity in financial markets, it makes more sense than ever for this Mortgage Czar to transfer debt rather than forcing buyers to secure new financing–which may or may not be available.

by Roberta Murphy

Earlier today, a client emailed my husband Mike about a great deal on a red Mercedes 500 SL convertible available on eBay. It was a 2004 model with only 7000 miles and offered a three-year warranty to boot. Located in Florida, this two-seater beckoned with a red price tag of around $28,000.

Ever the bargain hunter, Mike grabbed the San Diego Union Tribune’s Sunday classified section for cars, expecting to search through at least three pages for comparable sales.

It turned out be to a very short search because there was less than a quarter-page for all used cars in San Diego.

I am not particularly interested in red convertibles, but the slim number of classified ads in San Diego’s daily newspaper DID catch my attention.

We have all heard that the Chicago Tribune, the Baltimore Sun, the Los Angeles Times, the New York Times and other august print publications are on the ropes. The cause could only be financial, and financial resources are provided primarily by (1) Advertisers and (2) Subscribers (the number of which determine what advertisers pay for advertising).

I’ve been following these stories because I have a natural interest (because of background and training) in journalistic business–and also have a keen and active interest in how information (and advertising) is transmitted via the internet.

And it seems the latter may have overtaken the former. E-Bay and Craigslist are trampling traditional media.

Yesterday morning, I had a call from a Nevada broker asking if we had an agent fluent in Chinese who could help some Chinese investors seeking property in La Jolla.  Hmmm….we have agents who speak Spanish, Polish, Russian and Farsi, but none who were fluent in Chinese.

The solution was simple.

I clicked to Craigslist, immediately placed and paid for an ad for a Chinese-fluent real estate agent–and serendipity took over. Within hours, we had a perfect response.

This morning Shumei Tao, a very bright and talented real estate agent, joined our company, San Diego Previews Real Estate.  She is fluent in not only Mandarin, but Taiwanese, Cantonese–and the Internet. She too thought it serendipitous to find an internet ad that addressed her specific qualifications.

And it was only this evening as I looked at the sparse classified ads in the newspaper that I realized yesterday morning’s  instinctive reaction to a need: Head over to Craigslist and have the ad online within minutes. And then today, a Florida client sends not a classified ad, but an eBay listing for an automobile.

And then I stop to wonder: When was the last time I scanned the newspaper classified ads for…anything?

This is a continuation of last week’s discussion with real estate and luxury home legend Bob Dyson, who has a radical proposal that is being quickly embraced by Realtors, lenders and local Real Estate Boards.

Why resort to radical resolutions?

Because, says Dyson “This is a real estate depression–a serious, serious issue.”

He sees an immediate need to stabilize real estate markets and neighborhood values. He also believes the motgage lending industry needs to get out of the “asset management” business, and instead focus attention on new loan originations.

So what to do with all those defaulted loans and pre-foreclosures?

That’s where Dyson’s proposed “American Incentive Resolution” saves the day.

How would it work?

1. The American Incentive Resolution Corporation (as a government entity) would buy defaulted loans from lenders at 50 percent of face value.

2. Re-market these homes through Realtors at retail market value.

3. Offer these homes to first time buyers and those whose credit and FICO scores have been damaged by short sales and foreclosures the last couple of years. The initial terms would be a 12-month lease-purchase, with all payments accruing to a down payment as long as payments are made on time. Lease payments would equal what loan principle, interest, taxes and insurance would be under normal loan terms at 5 percent interest. Initial move-in would entail first and last months’ payments.

4. At the end of 12 months, the lease would become a purchase with all payments made under terms of the lease being applied to the full down payment.

The first video below details Bob Dyson’s assessment of the real estate market bottom, while the second deals with the American Incentive Resolution:

HT: http://www.SanDiegoPreviews.com

by Roberta Murphy

Last Thursday, I had the opportunity to sit across from Bob Dyson at his office in Del Mar and listen to this real estate legend discuss today’s real estate market. We were also fortunate to have Chris Dyson videotaping much of the discussion, which we have divided into four segments.

At the start of our interview, Bob Dyson said these are the worst conditions he has seen during his 40 years in the real estate business–citing symptoms such as lack of buyer confidence and the drastic deflation in certain real estate markets–including California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida.

The causes stem from irresponsible mortgage lending practices from 2003 to 2007 and the resultant and reactionary tightening of mortgage funds. Dyson simply calls it a “lending debacle.”

At the same time,he says, there is a large and growing backlog of buyers who want to buy–and are just waiting for reassurance that the real estate market has really bottomed, or is at least close to that point.

See below (and stay tuned for a radical solution):

I often turn to Billy Taylor, financial services guru at San Diego’s Villa Sotheby’s, when I want to hear the latest scoop on the mortgage market. Just last week, for example, Billy shared that Chase had moved out of the jumbo mortgage market entirely. That leaves a mere handful of lenders who will even consider doing jumbo loans, which help fuel much of the mortgaged luxury real estate market.

Below, Billy shares with us his latest assessment of the mortgage market and how it is impacting real estate sales:

As a real estate professional with more than 25 years experience I often get this question:

“When will the real estate market be coming back?”

Well, I don’t think the real estate market ever left us; it was the financing that left us!

There are many people looking to buy or sell real estate. The phones are still ringing and open house traffic is growing. I receive calls everyday inquiring about loans and real estate available.

It is NOT Consumer demand that is missing; it’s the financing programs available to fulfill those sales transactions that is missing.

Overnight after August 10th 2007 the real estate loan liquidity simply dried up. The secondary market on Wall Street stopped buying Jumbo loans,(those over $417,000), and has yet to come back into the market.

Jumbo loans, which had been 60% of the loan market in California prior to last summer of 2007, are now about 10% of the market. Congress’ loan liquidity solution of raising the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan limits to $697,000 in San Diego, for example, has NOT been the solution many had hoped it would have been. This is mostly because the interest rates delivered were NOT conforming rates as suggested they would be. Rather, they more like a half percentage point higher–and with new restrictions that made them nearly impossible to be approved.

This new jumbo loan category is called Agency Conforming and is nothing more than an old Jumbo loan, but with stricter guidelines and higher pricing. Jumbo pricing above $697,000 to $5,000,000 is even higher in pricing and also faces difficulty in getting approved.

The lifeblood to any market is liquidity and a real estate market would die without financing. In Mexico real estate loans are rare and generally require 50% or more as a down payment. Unfortunately that is why most of the population in Mexico doesn’t own real estate. So a lack of liquidity for real estate loans in the United States, and particularly jumbo loans, has restricted home ownership this past year.

We in the U.S. have had liberal financing available for real estate which has allowed millions to own homes. And therefore an abundance of real estate liquidity has allowed millions to own homes and enjoy a higher standard of living for themselves and their families.

But the lenders have all found underwriting religion and their financial gravy train has derailed. Programs that once fueled the 20% annual growth rates in Southern California real estate have been deleted. Stated income loans, which were probably the most abused offering of the market, is quickly disappearing as lawmaker’s line up to kill it completely. Second trust deeds which allowed lower down payments are rarely offered, and if they are, the pricing is prohibitive. In a word the lending guidelines are “TIGHT”

So where does this leave us and where am I going with this editorial?

Although my commentary is a bit dire I want to make the comment that all is NOT lost. There are still many banks willing to make loans. But it must be said the path to closing the deal is narrower!

Everyone would love to know when the bottom of this market will be reached. Which was the original premise for me writing this commentary?

I have the belief that TIME has nothing to do with when a bottom in a real estate market is reached. I believe the bottom will be reached when the INCOMES of buyers support the ASSETS FINANCED. And unfortunately this was not the case for many of the loans funded in the past five years.

That being said, I believe the real estate owner and investor has to be working with the best and most informed bankers, real estate brokers and real estate agents if they are to be successful in this market. The days of every loan being approved and every transaction closing is over. Sellers, Buyer’s and Agents should be partnering with their banker before a transaction goes into escrow–NOT AFTER. Success in real estate takes more planning and upfront work than in previous markets.

If there is any way I can assist you in your mortgage placement, please feel free to give me a call at 619-665-8006.

–Billy Taylor
Villa Sotheby’s International Realty
Del Mar, CA 92014

by Roberta Murphy

Ed McMahon may wonder what else in new in defaulted real estate, but yesterday, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service reported that even prime jumbo loans are starting to buckle.

Over a period of just one month–from June to July, 2008–jumbo loans originated in 2006 saw mortgage delinquencies rise 13.2 percent, while 2007 delinquencies rose 7.3 percent. Overall, mortgage delinquencies in the luxury real estate market are relatively low, with prime jumbos originating in 2006 reporting a serious delinquency rate of just 2.48 percent.

(For a more detailed report, go to: Prime Jumbos Showing Strain: S&P : Housing Wire)

It also appears that originations in the luxury market may be tightening. Thursday evening, Billy Taylor with Villa Sotheby’s International Realty in Del Mar, whispered that Chase Mortgage is pulling out of jumbo loan originations (at least at the broker level).

My prediction? There will be much more discussion about creative and seller financing in the months ahead. If financing is required for the purchase of a luxury home, it may be the seller who provides it.

Finally, stay tuned for Bob Dyson’s radical mortgage rescue program that could stabilize the real estate market very quickly–and that is quickly gaining prominent political support….

by Roberta Murphy

Luxury real estate gossip the last few months has fluttered around topics like the sale of Donald Trump’s Palm Beach mansion at $100 million (when it had been listed for $125 million), the pending foreclosure of Ed McMahon’s Beverly Hills home, and the F-word in luxury real estate (foreclosures).

These days, recession is the hot topic as brokerage accounts have been bloodied, home equities have declined, and credit cards are filling up with gasoline charges. It’s no wonder that it’s now fashionable to talk about frugality. And these discussions are leading to real changes in lifestyle.

Some very random observations and sensible advice:

1. Hybrids are the cool cars. Gasoline guzzling Beamers and Mercedes are being traded in for fuel-sipping and leather-seated hybrids. In some areas, there are wait lists of months for the Toyota Prius.

2. Have adjustable rate mortgages on your home or other properties? You may want to consider financing that will carry you through the financial storms ahead. Values are slipping in many luxury real estate markets–and appraisals may become problematic in the year ahead. Just my opinion, of course.

3. Are fewer Americans traveling to Europe? We’ve known several who have canceled European holidays and are traveling locally–or to Asia instead. Nobody wants to spend decimated dollars in a in a Euro-pumped economy. US dollar exchange rates against the Chinese Yuan are far more attractive.

4. A bright note in the economy are the number of Europeans, Canadians and others who are coming to the United States to shop not only Neiman Marcus and Chanel, but to spend those Euros and Loonies on prime US real estate. Homes in San DIego, Palm Beach, Scottsdale and Las Vegas are phenomenal bargains when purchased with these foreign currencies.

5. A number of affluent baby boomers are scaling back. They are aiming to trade their large suburban homes for something smaller, something single level, and something that is in walking distance to beaches, golf, restaurants, and mass transit. Trains, in particular, have captured the fancy of many,

6. This is only buzz, but I am hearing that many are dropping and/or selling country club memberships–and that there are reportedly thousands for sale in golf heavens like the Palm Springs area. Any other information out there?

7. More people appear to be dining at home. In the La Costa area where we live, both Tommy V’s and Sushi on the Rock have shuttered their doors. These were bustling restaurants just a year ago. It is likely a scenario that repeats itself throughout the country. And is it just my imagination, or do the local farmer’s markets seem to be busier this year? Perhaps people are rediscovering the utility of their own lovely kitchens.

Somehow, I think there will be future articles and lots of discussion on frugality in our lifestyles.

After all, consider the real estate and stock market bargains that might be bought with the money saved….

by Roberta Murphy

This is a market that sometimes brings out the creative forces in real estate. And more and more, real estate exchanges are making lots of sense in the luxury real estate market.

Earlier this evening, I had an interesting conversation with a Sotheby’s real estate agent in Northern California.

It seems he is interested in exchanging his exquisite 104 acre property just outside Carmel for a luxury home in Rancho Santa Fe, just outside San Diego. His acreage offers 380 organic citrus trees that supply local restaurants, two greenhouses that produce basil for Whole Foods markets, Zinfandel grape vines that go you-know-where, and a number of fat and field-fed Angus cattle. He also has plans for an exquisite Tuscan villa that might be built for $1.5 million.

He is seeking to move to Southern California, and to Rancho Santa Fe in particular. And knowing that Rancho Santa Fe property owners love privacy, space and quiet, he thought that perhaps an easy and compatible exchange might be accomplished.

The numbers are certainly workable. He owes less than $800,000 on this parcel, in which he has invested nearly $3 million. He is seeking a Rancho Santa Fe home valued at $1.5 to $2.8 million–and may or may not be accomplishing the transaction via a 1031 exchange.

Quite simply, Northern California landowner wishes to relocate to Rancho Santa Fe and figures that some homeowner there would love the opportunity to exchange properties with him.

Makes sense to me.
So, if you have a Rancho Santa Fe home and have dreams of a bucolic life outside Carmel and California’s premier wine country, please let me know and I’ll arrange for a proper introduction. Just give us a call at 877-818-81979 or 760-402-9101.

And if you have an unusual luxury home exchange proposal of any sort, we’d also like to hear from you!

by Roberta Murphy

Zillow founder Rich Barton loves placing industries inside glass houses (most notably in real estate), and may now become the cause of painful overexposure (or welcome relief) for industry executives.

It seems he just unveiled GlassDoor, which will reveal salary reports, compensation figures and reviews from employees.

GlassDoor, based in Sausalito, CA, currently has around 2,000 salary reports from over 250 companies along with a current reports from around 1300 employees of these companies. In order to lure the curious, the site is offering free peeks into salaries and employee reviews for Google, Inc., Yahoo, Inc, Microsoft, and Cisco Systems, Inc.

I don’t yet know whether the site will remain free or become one based on paid subscriptions. We might imagine that if GlassDoor is sticky enough and has a gazillion visitors, advertising might pay its way.

According to the San Jose Business Journal, who released the story, GlassDoor will be reviewing salaries and reports prior to posting.

Current spotlight?

Eric Schmidt, Google CEO, has an employee approval rating of 83 percent, while Cisco CEO John Chambers scores 93 percent. This may prove to be one of the hottest water coolers around.

Kudos for the coup, Rich Barton!